2026 — The expansion had no exit path
The decision failed because no viable exit path existed from the beginning.
All outcomes required additional commitment.
Failure Type: → Structural Failure
Crux: → No Exit Design
Case
The expansion required fixed commitments with no defined exit path.
Decision Error
No exit scenario was defined before committing.
Why It Failed
Every possible exit required additional capital or concessions.
Trigger
Commitment occurred before downside modeling.
Missed Signal
No scenario allowed exit without increased exposure.
Rule
If exiting requires additional commitment, the structure is invalid.
Compare / Similar Failures
Often confused with:
Key Difference:
Strategy Drift develops gradually through execution changes, while No Exit Design is a structural flaw present from the beginning.
Boundary:
If failure emerges over time → Strategy Drift.
If failure exists at entry → No Exit Design.
Related Cases
→ External conditions invalidated the model
This case belongs to: