Permanence Illusion
Definition:
A temporary condition is incorrectly treated as a stable or long-term state.
Signal:
The model assumes continuity without testing reversal scenarios.
Rule:
If stability is assumed → test for change before committing.
Test:
If a condition is extrapolated without reversal testing AND volatility is ignored → this is Permanence Illusion.
Entries
→ 2026 — Demand stability was assumed without validation
Compare / Similar Failures
Key Difference:
Permanence Illusion is an assumption error, while Distorted Signal is a data error.
Boundary:
If stability assumption is wrong → Permanence Illusion.
If data input is wrong → Distorted Signal.
Related Crux
This crux belongs to: